NAB 4K Update

NAB2013 has been and gone and its clear that 4K was a strong message from the show.  So has anything really major changed from my previous scriblings in the latest round of announcements?  I don't think so.  I don't think the overall trajectory has changed.  

​Blackmagic Production Camera 4K

​Blackmagic Production Camera 4K

The leading area at the moment is acquisition with a strong growth in the number of 4K capable devices from Sony, Blackmagic, Phantom, Kineraw etc.  The post world is keeping up with support for codecs, 6G SDI and Moore's Law helps with the processing.  We have a problem with storage though.  We are dealing with a double data whammy of RAW and 4K, but storage mediums are not increasing in density per cost much at the moment.

​We have the same problem with distribution.  Sony's announcements to support their 4K consumer devices are a bit of a drop in the ocean at the moment and not very compelling, even for AV enthusiasts like me.  My 1080p projector can reveal the difference between a blu-ray and a more compressed HD signal (download or satellite) or an up-scaled DVD.  Ultra HD has to be perceptibly better than HD blu-ray otherwise its just a waste of bits.

​Sony FMP-X1 4K media player

​Sony FMP-X1 4K media player

I am getting more tempted to look at 4K acquisition.  I do think there is a strong case for getting as good a "digital" negative as you can justify.  Even if your post workflow/pipeline is going to have to wait a while to catch up, there are probably enough options round dual record and proxies to make it viable now.

At some point, the infrastructural and technical challenges will be sorted and the sheer desperation ​of the consumer electronics business for you to buy new stuff will succeed.  Who knows, British Telecom may even realise that my rural exchange is still wired with string and replace it with something from the 21st century.  At that point I will be able to take a trip on my hover chair to a dusty cupboard and drag out those old 4K files.  

Film has been a pretty good archival medium.  Maybe not in its nitrate days when it was close to a WMD level of danger, but in the post war years.  I have pictures in my Aperture library going back to the turn of the millennium and my first digital camera - a 2MP Canon S10.  I have scans from the same era from slides made with a slide scanner.  Resolution, contrast, colour fidelity ... they have none of those things.  However, a scan of a slide now taken with my multifunction printer looks like it came from a DSLR.  There is little I can do now to my S10 files to make them better.  Digital files will always be limited by the technology they were acquired with.

​Zoom and Enhance - still largely Science Fiction

​Zoom and Enhance - still largely Science Fiction

The Not Live from NAB blog

I really wanted to go this year and had pencilled in a trip taking my son Alex.  In the end, it was just not to be and we only got as far as London for BVE.  BVE is a good show but it doesn't have the international draw that NAB does.​  One of the big attraction of NAB is getting meet people who otherwise live only on the interwebs in Twitter, Facebook and blogs, not only from the US, but from across the world.

So whilst I promised myself I would stay at home and be productive, what I really do is get thoroughly ​distracted by every NAB tweet and post and slowly get dragged into Pacific Daylight Time.  If you missed all the excitement, then I recommend paying a visit to Newsshooter.com whose coverage really rocked this year.

So which have been the biggest distractions from the show for those not in Sin City.  This is my own personal top 5 in traditional reverse order:

​#5 Blackmagic DaVinci Resolve 10

​DaVinci Resolve 10

​DaVinci Resolve 10

Blackmagic Design have developed a real talent for the surprising over recent years.  Any suspicion that these are merely headline grabbing publicity stunts has been largely put to bed by a history of delivery (with a few notable exceptions) and a real sense of purpose ​from their CEO Grant Petty.

Resolve has been a consistent example of their philosophy.  Since they purchased DaVinci it has progressed from being a megabuck workstation solution through affordable Mac tower solution to free laptop solution in its Light form.  This would be understandable if Blackmagic were letting development slide but they are still cranking out new versions.  Resolve 10 has two stand out features: a built in NLE and Live grading.  The cost for upgrading - free and the free light version gets most new features too.  Why Mr Petty, you are spoiling us.

#4 Freefly Movi

​Movi M10

​Movi M10

With a pre-NAB spotlight shone on them by Vincent Laforet, the Movi was sure to be a show hit.  Vincent at hinted at something "game changing" before he showed his Movi short.  "Game changer" is such a loaded term these days that everyone knew Vincent would not use it lightly.  I got the impression from the interwebs that many folks went through the same journey I did.  Phase 1 was guessing what this new thing was going to be.  Phase 2 was mild disappointment when it turned out to be a rig instead of a 4K hover car for $1000.  Phase 3 was enjoying the video but not quite getting the significance.  Phase 4 was watching the BTS and say "Wow, thats so cool" a lot.  

Nothing I saw in the show demos and interviews has dislodged it from Sub Zero on an NAB Top Gear style Cool Wall.  It's not a game changer for me yet because I can't get close to justifying the $15k for the first model.  Rest assured I will be watching this area closely from now on.

#3 Convergent Design Odyssey 7Q

​I own an Sony FS700 which I would have had in this countdown a year ago.  Its usp is definitely its high speed modes but its main attraction was that it was a good all-rounder  for the money.  It fixed many of the flaws of the FS100 which is good but the feeling amongst my FS owning mates is no-one has quite nailed the picture profiles yet so that the FS100 still has a nicer look.  Another major difference of the FS700 over its little brother was that it was 4K ready.  Like many, I have a deep distrust of the word "ready" in a tech sense and this has not been helped by the trickle of vague information coming out of Sony.  Well, they have opened the sluices a bit and the we now know a lot more apart from the 2 critical bits of when and how much.  My mate Den Lennie has done a nice summary of what will be coming.  In terms of outputs we have got much more than we could have hoped.  Along with 4K, we are getting some arguably more useful 2K RAW options plus an unanticipated continuous high speed recording option.  The downside is the known cost of the Sony hardware required.  This isn't a surprise as much of it comes from Sony's very nice F5/55 line but the FS700 requires an additional interface unit. 

Convergent Design Odyssey 7Q

Convergent Design Odyssey 7Q

So this is where the 7Q enters into our story.  The Odyssey units are effectively a very nice monitor with a recorder built-in.  This is the opposite approach to my Ninja 2.  Convergent have announced a deal with Sony which will allow you to record both 2K and 4K from the FS700 onto the 7Q onto its twin SSD drives.  It doesn't exactly match the Sony solution exactly, but it is close enough for most for what we expect to be less wonga.  Convergent and Sony will still need to sort out their full pricing first before we will know the exact amount.​  As I need a field monitor, the 7Q is an attractive option.  It stings a bit that it is likely to cost more to upgrade than Blackmagic's new 4K for $4k production camera does outright but the FS700's merits are extended and enhanced.  Tony Reale from NextWaveDV recorded this great interview with Juan Martinez (Senior Product Manager) from Sony.  Sony's new found enthusiasm for supporting third parties is encouraging.  I think its clear that Sony understands that ending up with an FS700 that costs F5 money is pointless and they need to carry the fight to cameras like the Scarlet and 1DC by making alliances.

#2 DJI Phantom Gimbal

The DJI Phantom is not a new item having been high on my gadget lust list since Christmas.  The original standard GoPro mount made it the go to Cine Quadrocopter for those whose construction skills stopped at Lego (and not Technics either).  It was a great My First copter but the film clips were always a bit lacking.  The problem was rolling shutter effects caused by prop vibration and wind shear.  DJI's solution is to pair the Phantom with a downsized version of their Zenmuse stabilised gimbal.  DJI have specifically designed the gimbal for the Hero3 as it locks in like a GoPro backpack.  As well as smooth, jello free shots, you now get the ability to tilt the camera in the vertical axis from the remote. If you don't mind holding the Phantom and looking like a child playing with a Corgi copter, you can even use it as a budget Movi.  It is not necessary to make wumpa wumpa wumpa noises as you move it.

#1 Blackmagic Pocket Cinema Camera

Blackmagic hit us with, not one, but two new cameras at NAB2013.  Many would have chosen the 4K for $4K Production Camera as the star.  Not only is it stealing RED's abandoned tagline but it also brings the much requested S35 chip too.  If I didn't already have an FS700 I may well have made this number 1.  However, I do, so my 4K aspirations are headed in that direction.​

​"Properly small" I call that

​"Properly small" I call that

The Pocket Cinema Camera was the more surprising camera.  If you read my earlier posts you will know that I have an Micro Four Thirds system built round the Olympus OM-D EM-5.  I love shooting stills on the Oly, but a GH3 stomps all over it for video.​  I had considered getting a GH body, but it didn't really fit in with my nimbleness ethic.  I could have traded in the EM-5 for a GH3, but it doesn't have the same appeal as a stills camera.  So now in the Pocket we have a lightweight Olympus Pen sized body, supporting active MFT lenses and SD Cards with even better codecs and dynamic range than the GH3 offers.  Its not perfect - its 3x (to FF) crop is great for using classic S16 lenses (if you own any) but not so good using MFT, especially at the wide end.  It doesn't have the GH3's articulated screen, but it is usefully large and I am hopeful that, not being touch screen, it will be less mirror-like than its big brother's.  We also have not seen any footage but chief tester John Brawley reckons its very close to the BMCC.  It is still such a good companion for the EM5 that it has tempted me.

​Buttons rather than a touchscreen

​Buttons rather than a touchscreen

The original Cinema Camera has been the blot on Blackmagic's copy book in terms of delivery for well documented reasons.  Blackmagic have given us new delights before managing to deliver on last years.  Many folks are understandably hacked off about this.  I have a pre-order deposit bet on them having learned from this.  We shall see. ​

The rise of 4K and the Conundrum of the 1DC

Just a few years ago, I darkened the door of my first broadcast exhibition.  There have been many since.  Back in those days the big beast striding the halls was 3D.  The massed ranks of the electronic industry were desperate to convince you that you needed a 3D strategy.  If you only cared about 2D then your market was about to be flat.  As I wandered the shiny things and flashing lights of this year's BVExpo in London 3D was notable mainly by its absence.  So what are the cool kids playing with this year?  Well that would be 4K sir.  I wouldn't say that it had quite the same razzmatazz behind it as 3D did, but there was definitely an underlying theme.

 

Like 3D, 4K is not something you can easily see at home without the right equipment.  So a show like BVE is the best place to get your own eyes on the effect.  What 4K is about is resolution.  With at least 4x the number of pixels as 1080p, 4K or UltraHD is a big jump in resolution.  Technically it presents fewer curve balls than 3D, it is mainly a question of data and how to deal with it.  However, there are still a lot more unknowns than there was with 3D.  Even in those early days of 3D we knew a lot more about how it was going to reach our screens whether that was at the local multiplex or in our own lounge.  Most of the cinemas I frequent are already projecting in 4K but the domestic arrangements are still barely pencilled in.

So if you are not producing your output for the Odeon or Vue, should you care?  Is this another fad?  My own feeling is that it is more than a fad.  I personally think it is inevitable but that its rate of advance is far from certain.  These are my latest thoughts based on the show floor and attending Philip Bloom's presentation on the Canon 1DC.

On the show floor, a number of stands had 4K monitors of around 50inches or less.  The did look good but then so does a high end 1080p monitor.  Even very close its very hard to see a pixel and this has a benefit on disguising noise.  The problem is that you don't have to move very far from the screen for that to be also true of HD.  I am not sure that I would be able to tell them apart on a 50in screen at say 4m - roughly what I have in my lounge.  The same was pretty much true when I moved up from 720p to 1080p.  This is very typical setup in the UK.  Love it or hate it, 3D does offer an alternative experience.  The gain from 4K in the living room seems marginal.

Philip Bloom made his presentation in the 4K theatre.  This featured a commercial 4K projector but the screen was on a more domestic scale.  It can be hard to judge in a much larger room but it looked quite similar to my own 8ft screen.  All the 4K material Philip showed came from the Canon 1DC of which more later.  So we are still at a domestic scale albeit a much higher end source.  It didn't really change my opinion, once again it looked good, but not a huge upgrade over a good HD projector.  I am sure 4K has a lot more in hand but I am still unconvinced the domestic scale quite warrants it.  At the moment that is academic as there is still a gap which is the delivery mechanism.  Sony have something planned to support their devices but I haven't seen any firm details.  Just as I write this there are stories breaking about 4K streaming on the PS4 and talk of 100GB files.  If you live in the sticks like I do then it might as well be delivered on gold bricks.  RED also have plans but again details are sketchy and I wonder about what content they will have the rights to deliver.  This is a notoriously difficult area to navigate, especially internationally.  The data rates I have heard mentioned for RED are much lower, almost in the too good to be true bracket.  They have some clever guys there but I have seen instances in the HD realm where data rates have not expanded to match resolution multiples to the detriment of overall image quality.  There is a lot of hard maths involved in balancing data rate, resolution, frame rate, colour and compression. Any compromise here would undermine the 4K advantage and put me off entirely.  I don't want to seem negative, I just have high expectations.  I have seen films at the cinema recently like Skyfall and Lincoln projected in 4K that have looked sensational.  Skyfall was not even acquired in 4K but it did not seem to impact the end result to my eyes.

Acquisition is perhaps the area we know most about.  Available on RED from its inception and increasingly appearing in camera systems from Sony, Canon and others.  The Canon 1DC is more or less the entry level option available now.  There is this strange dichotomy where it is "cheap" for a 4K camera but very expensive for a DSLR.  It is twice the cost of its very close relative, the 1DX.  One advantage it has is that 4K recording is on board - something its more expensive relative the C500 can't manage.  The downside is that the codec used is more limited.  Compression is higher than alternative products particularly when it comes to colour space.  So is it worth the money over the 1DX?

Philip Bloom at BVE London

One person who thinks so is Philip Bloom.  Philip explained that he had all the reservations I have shared before using the camera.  He had already been converted by the performance of his 1DX, used very effectively here in this Olly Knights music video.  He still regarded himself as a 4K skeptic.  However, after trying a 1DC he found himself trading up.  The primary reason was the detail in the image.  Comparing images from a still frame (say, from a time-lapse sequence) with a frame from a video sequence can be depressing.  So much detail is lost in the moving frame.  This is just not the case with 1DC.  Philip equates the moving frame quality from the 1DC in 4K with a medium jpeg.  This was very clear in the image blow-ups that Philip shared with us.  This was the killer feature that convinced him, bolstered by the advantages of being able to reframe for HD or high quality masters.  It's not the perfect camera, it still has most of the DSLR foibles and the codec is limited in speed and gradability.  However, Philip feels that its improvement in image quality combined with traditional DSLR strengths of size, low light capabilty and stills ability is worth the investment.  It was hard to disagree looking at a new music video project shot on the 1DC.  Though I must admit that I soon forgot to pixel peep and just enjoyed the images and the song - just how it should be.

4K interface unit and recorder for FS700

For me personally the 1DC doesn't really fit my needs.  Some time in July (allegedly), Sony will release the 4K upgrades for my FS700.  Like with Phil's move from the X to the C there will likely be a substantial investment required.  An investment difficult to justify on the basis of need (stop laughing - I know thats never stopped me before).  It may also be sometime before I can even enjoy the full benefits of the improved acquisition.  Even discounting my early adopter nature, I still have a nagging doubt that I may regret not adopting 4K in the long term.  This coming from a man contemplating ordering a skip to dump my VHS tapes and driven to distraction by accidentally watching the DVD of Skyfall before he discovered where they had hidden the Blu-ray disk in the box.

It's Raining Cameras

Last year, I went to NAB for the first time.  After a couple of years of watching my social media contacts having a much better time than me I decided I would join them.  It was a great trip and it was great to meet everyone.  If there was a disappointment for me, it was that NAB2011 was more notable for the cameras that were not released than it was for those that were.

This year, I was not able to make the show so Murphy’s Law has kicked and we have loads of new large sensor cameras making their NAB debut.  Many of these are not brand new at NAB but there is a distinct flavour to the latest announcements.  There is no doubt that the early buzz was all around 4K.  This prompted a veritable twitter frenzy about whether you needed 4K.  I have covered this ground before in so I will move on to the cameras themselves.

First up is Canon.  Despite recently having given us the C300 and the 5D Mk3, Canon still had some new toys to tempt us with. 

The more expected of these two is the Canon 1DC as Canon teased it at the C300 launch.  Unlike the C300 this is a proper convergence device.  As a stills camera it has the same spec as the 1DX which means it is a full frame, professional grade DSLR.  As a video camera it has some significant upgrades over the 1DX.  The most significant and its ticket to the NAB in-crowd is a 4K capability.  This is recorded to the CF card in good ole MJPEG at 24p.  This is an odd choice and I am guessing that what we are really getting is an image sequence rather than a movie file.  Its more like the stills shooting being sped up to 24fps rather than the movie resolution being doubled.  It is also the first Canon DSLR with a clean full HD resolution video out (8bit 4:2:2). HD recording has the same codec options and speeds as the 1DX/5D3 but adds 1080p50/60.  Canon has also added Canon Log Gamma.  UK pricing is a slightly speculative £10,000 inc VAT which would make it twice the cost of the (now very delayed) 1DX.    There is no doubt that it is the king of DSLR convergence as it out features everything in a DSLR shell.  No lesser man than Shane Hurlbut did the demo shoot for NAB and the twitter consensus was it looked great on the big screen.  Personally, I am just wondering who it is for.  By 4K standards it is not particularly expensive but unless you need 4K you can have a couple of D4s or four D800s with only a small drop in feature set.  More significantly, you can also have the much more shooter friendly C300.  If you do want 4K, it is significant that the recording is onboard.  With cameras like the FS700 we don’t know when 4K recording will come or how much it will be.  The 1DC is 4K out of the box but you have just that one way of getting it.  Its also worth noting that the eurotweeters were unhappy about the lack of 25p.  You lose many of the current advantages of 4K if you can’t downscale to HD easily.

Canon’s second camera is a big brother for the C300 - the C500.  Back on their shared birthday, the RED crowd mocked the C300 for being “only HD” and lacking RAW or high 1080p frame rates.  The C500 is here to kick sand back in the face of RED for only twice as much money as the C300.  OK, maybe that loses some of the impact.  Since its launch, the C300 has built a enthusiastic following.  Its picture quality and ease of use have given it a kind of baby Alexa reputation.  The C500 takes the same sensor but significantly beefs up the picture processing to give 4K out and is the first implementation of Canons own RAW format.  Speed has also been enhanced to up to 120fps.  I know that Canon has been working with Codex on a recorder.  Codex is the Rolls Royce option for external recorders (the worked with Arri too) with all that implies.  This is the first major manufacturer to venture into RED Epic territory, although technically its probably more of a baby Sony F65.  Its taken years for the industry to be get up to speed on RED’s RAW workflow.  How will Canon fare?

RED haven’t produced a new camera for NAB, the Scarlet is making its NAB debut but the real news is about a new sensor called RED Dragon.  This is the fulfillment of REDs main theme for NAB2011.  Its not a new camera but a new sensor which is inline with RED’s commitment to modularity and upgradability.  Resolution is up to an unprecedented 6K.  This may seem excessive given the debate about 4K but logically some of the advantages 4K acquisition has for HD delivery pass on up the line once you hit 4K delivery.  Of more immediate use is improved low light performance and dynamic range (without HDRX).  The cost for an Epic is expected to be around £4000 which is not exactly cheap but is a lot less than, say, trading in your C300 to get a C500.  Availability can be REDs achilles heel and the upgrade process won’t kick off till October.  Scarlet owner have an upgrade path too but they will have to wait longer which will give them more time to save.  Scarlet will be dearer because you effectively have to swap in Epic parts to get to Dragon.  Note that this is not the long awaited Monstro chip.  It is a touch bigger than the Epic but it is not yet full frame.

 

Sony’s only new large format camera is the FS700 I talked about recently.  The F65 was at NAB2011 last year if only in concept form.  Am I still enthusiastic about this camera now its in the context of all its piers?  I think the answer to that is yes.  It still represents what passes for value for money in the pro video market.  The upgrades from the FS100 are worthwhile and, in the case of the high speed, innovative.  It’s not upgradeable in the RED sense but the 4K 12bit RAW out shows some potential.  I just can’t think of many projects you might want to shoot that you couldn’t with the FS700.  I think Sony predicted the FS700 launch would get lost in the noise at NAB and launching before was a smart move.

Canon may have thought that launching 2 cameras would guarantee them the show buzz and for about 24 hours they were right.  Then the Aliens landed! 

Video processing specialist turned software guys Blackmagic Design lived up to their name and made Canon’s buzz disappear and reappear at their own stand.  Blackmagic’s last trick was to make the cost of getting hold of the feature film class grading software Resolve they acquired first shrink from $100,000 first to $1000 and then disappear entirely.  OK, that is a slight over-simplification but it shows they know have to think outside-the-box and drive value.  Blackmagic debuted some Thunderbolt connected SSD recorders last year at an attractive price.  This year they decided that as they do processing, recording and software all they really needed to do was find I nice sensor and they could make a camera - so they did.  What they have come up with is the most blue sky thinking camera I have seen.  Its a camera designed to be as filmic as possible.  It is not a convergence device, its not going to replace your 5D in that regard.  It has a Johnny Ive-like singularity of purpose.  They knew their customers wanted a camera with excellent grading capability and wide dynamic range (13 stops).  This meant shooting RAW.  Rather than go proprietory as the majors have they used the open CinemaDNG format.  It shoots at 2.5k and 12bit which gives scope for cropping but you can also shoot HD in ProRes (Apple) or DNxHD (Avid) formats.  As befits the makers of Resolve, your Colourist will love you for shooting on this. To cope with all this data the camera has an integrated SSD slot.  Again this is just a standard 2.5” SATA drive you can buy down at PC World.  To get the data into your NLE or Resolve you can just pop the drive in an enclosure or use the integrated Thunderbolt port.  This can also be used to connect your laptop to use the Ultrascope monitoring package that is bundled along with a full copy of Resolve (over £1000 value).  For more traditional forms of monitoring and audio there is SDI out and 1/4 jacks.  To top it off is a high res touch screen  monitor with an iOS-like interface that should make the designers of the major’s menu interfaces hide in shame.  So here we have a piece of gear with a hat full of ground-breaking tech and it costs £2300.  No really, I meant to type that.  OK then, don’t believe me - google it yourself.  When everyone picked themselves off the floor and hit the twitters there was a huge buzz.  This was shortly followed by the kill joys and fanboys chiming in.  

So where do I stand.  A week ago I was happy to imagine buying an FS700 (currently my camera budget is imaginary).  Now, here is a camera which I can buy three of for the same number of (imaginary) pounds stirling.  As I said earlier, the Blackmagic is a very focused device which will get you as close to film as you can for £2k.  The sensor is slightly less than MFT size, close to Super 16mm film.  This means a 2x crop.  As it uses EF or ZF 35mm lenses this means a struggle to find good wide angles and a increased depth of field.  Its also no speed merchant, frame rates span 24 to 30fps.  Its OK in low light but not exceptional.  It has a native ISO of 800 but early indications are it goes up to 1600ASA.  It does not take stills.  In fact it is almost the polar opposite of my 5D Mk II.  The FS700 is much more of a workhorse.  If you are not shooting a movie the AVCHD codec is perfectly adequate.  You have all the niceties of built in ND, XLR, decent AF, peaking, zebras etc and a long shooting time.  If you want to pimp up the image by recording externally (8bit 4:2:2) you can, but bear in thats going to cost you about a third of the cost of the Blackmagic on top of the base price.  Expect much more than that to enable that 4K RAW option.  I expect a new breed of 4K recorder to appear but the current ones cost more than the Blackmagic on their own. So, in summary, if you are working professionally on a mix of jobs and you want something that blends Sony EX3 convenience and versatility with a DSLR aesthetic then the FS700 still has the best feature set for the money.  If you were waiting for REDs 3k for 3k Scarlet and feel disenfranchised by how things turned out then Blackmagic has delivered it for you.  Just don’t sell that 5D MkII you bought while you waited just yet because it fills in a few gaps in the feature set.  If you just want carry round one device to shoot stills or video to a high level of quality then a DSLR like the D800 or a compact interchangeable like the GH2 or NEX7 would be a better bet.

I think the Blackmagic is the first camera worthy of the woefully overused term “game changer” since the Canon and Vincent LaForet shocked us with Reverie.  You can pick holes in its feature set but the real revolution is that Blackmagic set out to design a set of features in and the costs out.  They have not skimped on the technology, much of it is a step forward at any price.  Then they have decided on a price that presumably makes them some money.  They have not chosen to position it in a range or in a market and it came out at 2 grand.  If your allegiance is to another brand, how will it make you feel the next time you cough up 3 grand for a piece of firmware or £15 per Gb for proprietary media.

What the 4K!

Every so often my twitter stream will burst into life about 4K and the 4K Jets and the HD Sharks will get ready to rumble.  It may be a new 4k product announcement or a post on Red User which will act as the catalyst.  It seems far more polarising than say, 3D, as an issue.

I think there are a lot of aspects to this battle for hearts and minds - worth a little reflection I think.  If we look at acquisition then there just a couple of systems capable of 4k (or more acquisition).  Of these RED is the poster boy for 4K as Sony's F65 is only just starting to appear.  

F65 Prototype at NAB

Now most people would agree that more resolution is better (possibly not older actresses).  I saw a demo on the Sony stand at NAB2011 and it was deeply impressive despite the screen being huge and the audience being unrealistically close.  It is also true that it gives you more flexibility in post for reframing and cropping.  It certainly true that throwing resolution away usually works better than adding resolution.  Major motion pictures shot on film (though not all) tend to be mastered at 4K and many cinemas are equipping with 4K digital projectors.  RED claims this makes them the future-proof option.  30 years in IT leads me to believe that future-proof is a myth - perhaps future-resistant is more accurate.

The challenge at the moment on the acquisition and production side is the maths.  4K has four times more area roughly then 1080p.  That means 4x the data - all other things being equal.  That data is going to be present in your entire pipeline if you are going to master in 4K.  This has obvious implications in storing, movement and computation required in post.  This will increase costs and increase time.  Over time, improving technology will reduce this but it has significant implications now.

Currently, 4K equipped cinemas are the only place the public is likely 4K footage natively.  Will this change in the near future?  There are signs that the consumer electronic industry is going to put its faith in 4k as the next big thing after 3D.  CES this year had a smattering of 4K models.  CE Manufacturers always need a next big thing, its essential to their business model to persuade you that the consumer durable they sold you 2 years ago is no longer sufficient.  Interest in 3D is waning, they need a new flag to wave.

Toshiba 55" 4K TV

I happen to have a 3D set bought recently and a 3D projector waiting for an install.  Am I a 3D evangelist? Not really, I was really making the move to 1080p and 3D was just a bonus.  Its not that I don't like 3D, I enjoy the experience when its done well, but there is hardly anything to watch.  I have 2 sources of material: Sky and Blu-ray.  Sky has one channel which is about 70% repeated material (my impression, I am not sad enough to measure it) and a few blu-rays.  Even cinema releases which were 3D don't seem guaranteed to get a blu-ray disk.  If they do its normally dearer list price and less likely to be discounted.  

What have I got plugged into my setup.  I have a Blu-ray player (1080p), PS/3 (720p/1080p), SkyHD (720p/1080i) and AppleTV (720p). My amp is theoretically capable of handling and upscaling to 4k but compatibility is always in doubt till some standards emerge.  The signal path is via HDMI1.4 which can do 4k24p.  I do expect to see a jump in quality in my new 1080p projector over the old 720p one slightly offset by a bigger screen size.  However, I see no real difference in percieved resolution at my 3.5m viewing distance between my new 47" 1080p LED LG TV and my old 1024 x 720 Pioneer 42" plasma.  The step up in resolution to 4k is more marked than that between 1080 and 720 but I am not convinced it will be obvious at TV panel size.  How big do you have to go before you notice 4k.  In the world of AV consumerism there is the much feared WAF.  This is not a technical term but stands for wife acceptance factor.  Flat screen TV has faired well in WAF because the resulting sets maybe larger but they have taken up less space.  Get over 50" though and the sets are starting to draw to much attention to themselves and the WAF plummets relegating them to dedicated media rooms and bachelor pads.  This is probably less of an issue in the US where homes are typically more spacious, but any new format has got to succeed globally. 

I am the kind of early adopter guy who would buy 4K so what would it mean to me and how would I get it?  I think we can rule out broadcast.  In the UK, only the death of analgue has freed up enough space for a few HD over-air channels.  Sky too tends to worry about how many channels not the quality or we would not still be on 1080i.  Download services could distribute a file but how long are you prepared to wait.  In metropolitan areas it may be OK but I am limited to 5mbps out here in the sticks.  A single 4K movie not compressed to mush would probably exceed the typical UK monthly download limit for most punters.  So we are looking at some kind of disk or device to deliver the movie.  Blu-ray could do it but most current players arent going to be able to cope.  Even the ubiquitous and future-tolerant PS/3 is probably going to fail as its missing HDMI1.4.  If blu-ray can be stretched to fit (and in this I include at the pressing facilities) it just might gain a foothold with a slow burn dual play approach similar to 3D.  The disruption level is similar in that case.

I can't see a brand new physical format succeeding now.  DVD had the full weight of the industry behind it and its take off was slow in the UK taking a few years to hit critical mass and oust VHS.  Most of us early adopters have a drawer full of Region 1 disk we played on hacked DVD players.  We bought them so we had a decent choice back in the day and now we cant trade them in against blu-rays.  Blu-ray had a more troubled birth as it was fighting not just against DVD but HDDVD too.  It won the format war in the end but even after all this time it still has a smaller section in HMV than DVD.  Look round the rest of the store and you see racks of CDs.  CD is 30 years old and no higher definition format has come close to unseating it as a retail format.  The threat to CDs comes from a variety of formats that are worse - an interesting lesson for video.  Even HMVs future is far from assured - condemning video sources to online or a small selection at supermarkets. 

So winding right back to where we started with acquisition, how important is 4K?  If you are filming big budget features then it seems to make sense to feed the growing number of 4k projectors.  Not that I have seen any issues with Alexa films at my 4k equipped multiplex.  For lesser budget features then its a finely balanced decision.  What is going to provide the most production value up on the screen?  Any skimping you do on other crafts to feed that 4k pipeline are only going to be more visible in your end product.  For TV, Indie Films and Commericals I think its a long time before most of the 4k benefits start paying back with time being so critical.